President Obama announced the activation of another round of sanctions, aim at discouraging any nation not moving fast enough to sever oil imports from Iran. The new sanctions will effectively force countries to choose between doing business with the United States and buying oil from the Iranians.
Increasing pressure on the global community to isolate Iran through historic levels of economic sanctions, the Obama administration is gambling that, that very pressure will not explode the price of oil globally, while threatening to fray diplomatic relationships with allies and partners still buying some of their crude from Tehran. Nations who've yet to secure exemptions from US sanctions could face the wrath of US economic expulsion themselves if still purchasing petroleum products from Iran after June 2012.
This could arguably be the biggest risk the President has taken since his decision to escalate the war in Afghanistan and we all know how that is turning out. The sanctions going forward will inevitably strain relations with allies as they'll exert additional pressures on already stumbling to tumbling growth patterns in the EU.
Additionally, the Obama administration has to convince Americans and the international community that the sanctions are worth the sacrifice of higher prices at the pump and a prolonged global economic recession. Considering the price of oil has become an election campaign issue, the President has the added burden of downplaying the connection between his policies in dealing with Iran and the burden of American consumers to absorb those higher energy cost.
Planning from the premise that the world's demand will lessen due to China's predicted economic slowdown, Europe's financial woes continuing without viable solutions and an expected rise in the price of oil, the Obama administration views current conditions as favorable to gaining compliance. Oddly, as long as the world's economy remains in a weakened state, the US/Israeli union can leverage those conditions directly against Iran.
But how long this coalition of the "forced and prodded" will hold together under domestic pressures to consider other than US alternatives, will be another determining factor in the success of the "crippling sanctions". On Friday, President Obama assured the world of ample supplies on the market to meet current need.
"There is a sufficient supply of petroleum and petroleum products from countries other than Iran to permit a significant reduction in the volume of petroleum and petroleum products purchased from Iran by or through foreign financial institutions," Obama said in a statement. Still, many behind the scenes are nervous as the global market has to rely on unsubstantiated claims from Saudi Arabia that they can pick up the slack to offset Iran's exclusion.
Another risky calculation made by the administration is whether the Iranian people will feel collectively punished by the "crippling sanctions" as inflation rises and imports fall. With the cost of food and other daily necessities becoming more expensive and scarce, the Iranian people are more likely to focus their resentment on the US/Israeli tag teaming as the cause of their condition, than to blame the Iranian leadership.
Hence, time is of the essence. The longer the US/Israelis keep the Iranian's nuclear ambitions a primary focal point of the world's "critical issues to do list", the longer uncertainty in international trade, oil prices and undue economic stress will pervade. Playing within a dangerously tight timeline, the President has roughly 120 days from the time all sanctions are fully implemented (if so) and the 2012 election date.
Any unaccounted for event or unexpected unilateral action taken, could expose the White Houses' risk laden calculus in major way. If President Obama was running against anyone other than a complete blithering idiot in the field of foreign policy, he'd have a significant challenge to overcome in his bid to retain the Presidency.
Fortunately for the President, should the unforeseen event occur, calling for a radical shift in Iranian policy or explanation thereof, no matter which Mitt Romney responded, none would have a clue.
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