Confident enough to issue threats of retaliation if Syria's sovereignty is disrespected by Israel or anybody else for that matter, Bashar al-Assad is gaining ground with strong support from a growing crew of deadly regional malcontents and spoilers. With Russia, China, Iran, Iraq and Lebanon's Hezbollah backing Assad's play, the West may see the first dictator successfully reverse the tide of the Arab Spring.
Praying the warring factions among the Syrian opposition can resolve the intramural killings long enough to agree to disagree, the Unites States desperately need as many reputable parties at the negotiating table as they can gather in June. Siding with, "who the hell knows", Western interest have received serious push back from those determined to change the trajectory of the existing power base in the middle east.
Yet to realize they've overplayed their hand in the region and in doing so overextended their reach, the West and the "silent entity" that drives them, continue to struggle for a Syrian solution that'd be Western friendly and face saving, In our view, no such solution exist and it never did. The clues became clear the minute Syrian protestors grew fangs.
Since most sound minds would agree that no weapons should be released to anybody under any circumstances if all parties to the conflict fail to meet for the purpose of a cessation of violence until a political resolution can be achieved, the likely outcome will be Bashar al-Assad wins by default. By their own divide the opposition will be defeated.
One could hold out hope that a consistent barrage of strongly worded U.S. demands that Hezbollah get out of the fight will eventually be heard, but were wagering more al-Assad loyalist will die laughing than anything else. While this sets a horrible precedent for future aspiring Arab Springers, it is what it is. We're calling this one for "The Bad Guy".
Bottom Line: Bashar al-Assad survives to hang on for elections. The outcome will be contested due to external influences. There will be more violence, but win or lose, Assad and his crew either leaves with a deal, or lives to rule another day.
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