Geneva Talks Produce Deal, But Principals Have Own Ideas
President Obama may have ensnared himself in another redline debacle by demanding a reversal of Russian expansionism before he can prove Russian expansionism. Threatening a new round of economic sanctions within days if Russia won't reign in Pro-Russian separatist could be the spark that lights the proverbial fuse.
Without knowing how much influence Vladimir Putin actually has over Pro-Russian renegades, Russia can legitimately assert rogue forces are acting on their own volition. To wage economic warfare against Russia in retaliation for the acts of others will only strengthen Putin's case among his domestic audience, as well as those sitting on the fence.
As things stand at the moment, behind closed doors, many European business entities and Russian energy dependent member states are privately arguing to hold off on hasty sanctions talks until the smoke has cleared. With both side now engaging in clandestine operations, ugly events on the ground could be perpetrated by just about anybody. Reports of shootouts, acts of anti-Semitism and roving crews of armed thugs have captured the headlines, but the facts remain camouflaged behind well designed campaigns of misinformation.
Since its nearly impossible for the Russians to demonstrate Ukraine separatist movements are homegrown and independent, Putin and friends may eventually feel boxed in. If Western powers aren't careful, they might find out how savage a bear fights when trapped.
Still, without concrete and independently verifiable evidence Russia has total control of Pro-Russian Ukrainian separatist, its going to be difficult to press anyone beyond Washington warmongers to make the significant sacrifices it will take to make a difference in Ukraine. Kiev needs lots of money and lethal military assistance, neither of which the Obama administration is willing to provide yet. Instead, the Obama administration is sending Joe Biden to intervene (verbally).
Unfortunately, unless Vice President Biden's visit is for a serious fact finding mission to determine what the hell is really going on from the local's perspective, he's going to waste a lot of jet fuel for nothing. The only way to defuse this faux crises is to focus on the Ukrainian majority caught in the middle, while exposing extremist (whomever they are) for what they are.
Exposing extremist elements lurking within separatist movements can only be accomplished by engaging all concerned elements and not just those at the top handing those at the bottom their marching orders.
If the White House has only sent Biden to hold hands, show moral support and launch a myriad of unsubstantiated accusations against Russia, the principals on the ground will only intensify their efforts to take matters into their own hands.
Bottom line: Considering economic sanctions negatively impact everyone, the Obama administration is once again ready to write a check the world will have to cash.
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