Issues Under Fire: Middle East on Fast Track to Sectarian War
National Pride Vs. Sectarian Identity was the intended title for today's post, but at the rate Iraq is deteriorating, that debate may already be over. As ISIS captures and hold more territory, while Iraqi forces pull back to protect Shiite communities and interest, it appears the sectarian divide has grown too wide to bridge with a revamped Iraqi government. If installing a revamped and more inclusive government won't satisfy the dissatisfied then there is no political solution to the Iraqi conflict.
The reported mission of U.S. forces arriving to assist and retrain Nouri al-Maliki's military, will also need to assess the mindset of the broader Sunni population. If the Sunnis are as fed up with the Iraqi government as they are with Nouri al-Maliki himself, they may be willing to live with the presence of ISIS extremist.
Perhaps the average Sunni feel the strict brutish nature of the ISIS/ISIL couldn't be any worse than having to live in the shadow of any Shiite lead government. It must be known how many Sunnis see the ISIS/ISIL as saviors and not savages. It must be know how many Sunnis put out the welcome mat when the ISIS army marched triumphantly into town after town. Perhaps the everyday Sunni sees the establishment of a border-less islamic caliphate as a good thing. Perhaps this was always how the Iraq story would end.
It must be determined (quickly) if Sunni moderates are so few in number, that they're the only ones fleeing their homes, shuttering their businesses and filling up refugee camps. If a majority of the strong, young and able Sunnis have joined the fight against the state of Iraq or otherwise just fence sitting opportunist, there is little hope of accomplishing anything more than monitoring the madness, while developing and maintaining an effective regional counter terrorist coalition.
Bottom line: It might be time to consider acknowledging what most want to avoid; The Middle East is headed for one hell of a sectarian civil war and there ain't a God damn thing anybody can do to stop it!
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