Issues Under Fire: If Iran-P5+1 Nuke Talks Fail, Tehran Wins

Issues Under Fire: If Iran-P5+1 Nuke Talks Fail, Tehran Wins 

For those who consistently fail to see tomorrow before its to late, perhaps today's post will provide some helpful insights into what happens if the Iran-P5+1 nuclear talks fail. After processing all events, angles, strategies, players, motives and agendas leading up to this point, interesting revelations came to the fore, indicating who will win, no matter what the outcome of these negotiations happen to be.  

Breaking down each side's approach to solving the conflict, it was apparent, Tehran has been proposing a win win solution, while the West is being urged to push the zero sum game. From the very start of this process, the Iranians have been careful to maintain a posture of calm discipline. Every position taken to date, has been delivered with the notion that all parties concerned can profit if a deal is reached. 

In exchange for sanctions relief, Tehran sees a fair deal as maintaining Iran's right to independently enrich nuclear materials for peaceful purposes, while providing unfettered access to nuclear facilities for international inspections. This, Tehran sees as a win win for all concerned as the West will be satisfied with its ability to monitor Iran's nuclear programs and Iran can rejoin the international community. When one considers how many foreign investors are eagerly awaiting the sanctions to be lifted, its difficult to see how anybody loses. 

On the other hand, the zero sum game being pursued by the West, clearly envisions a good deal as, having Iran completely dismantle any and all programs related to nuclear production, delete all knowledge of nuclear production of any kind, subject itself to intrusive inspections while relying on energy handouts from approved Western providers. The West will be satisfied with its ability to monitor Iran's internal activities, while it removes sanctions at its snails own pace. The West wins all and Iran gives up everything. 

Since it don't take a genious to predict Iran's refusal to accept such insulting and preposterous proposals from Western hard liners, the talks could very well fail, if as predicted, said hard liners refuse to budge from said insulting and preposterous proposals. When this predictable collision of visions occurs, the international community will be forced to make a choice between Tehran's win win solutions and Western hard liner's zero sum game. From this observer's tea leaf readings, the international community will opt for the win win solution. 

Bottom line: If the Iran-P5+1 talks fail, Tehran has accurately predicted the international community will find the United States and Israel as impediments to progress and begin to rollback internationally imposed sanctions themselves. Iran's nuclear programs will continue unabated, unmonitored and untouched.

Having no other recourse but to seek additional unilateral sanctions and air strikes, (neither likely to change the trajectory of the situation) U.S. and Israeli hard liners will be left with a zero sum result for their efforts. Podcast Below!